By Caleb Johnson
In politics, as in nation-building, there comes a moment when ambition must yield to wisdom, and aspiration must bow to history. That moment, for HE Atiku Abubakar, is now.
No serious observer of Nigeria’s democratic journey can deny Atiku’s enduring relevance. He has remained a central figure in the nation’s political evolution, offering himself repeatedly for service and shaping conversations across decades. Yet, it is precisely because of this stature that the expectations upon him must be higher. Leadership is not only defined by the willingness to contest power, but also by the discernment to step aside when the greater good demands it.
Nigeria’s fragile equilibrium has long rested on an unwritten but widely respected principle: rotation. It is not perfect, but it has served as a stabilising mechanism in a diverse and often tense federation. In 2015 and 2019, the North took its turn. In 2023, the expectation, widely acknowledged across political lines, was that power would shift to the South. The decision to contest against that expectation contributed, in no small measure, to the internal dislocation that weakened the Peoples Democratic Party and altered the course of that election.
Atiku’s persistent return to the presidential contest, particularly at moments when the pendulum had clearly shifted away from his zone, now weighs heavily on public perception. Having vied in 2015 and 2019 during the North’s turn, and again in 2023 when the South’s turn was broadly acknowledged, a renewed bid in 2027 risks being seen not as resilience, but as disregard for a delicate national balance. In politics, perception is often reality. Many Nigerians, especially in the South, may interpret this pattern as an unwillingness to yield space when equity demands it. That sentiment, if allowed to harden, could significantly diminish the acceptability of his candidacy and, by extension, impose a heavy electoral burden on the African Democratic Congress.
Now, as 2027 approaches, the same question returns with greater urgency. With the South still within its expected turn, another presidential bid by Atiku risks reinforcing a perception of imbalance that the polity can ill afford. Politics, at its most effective, is not merely about legality. It is about legitimacy. And legitimacy, in a country such as ours, is deeply tied to a sense of fairness.
There is also the matter of strategy. The opposition stands at a delicate crossroads, seeking to build a credible alternative capable of challenging the incumbent, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. That task requires not only unity, but careful calibration of public sentiment. Many Nigerians, particularly in the South, may interpret another Atiku candidacy as a continuation of disregard for their turn. In such a scenario, the unintended consequence may be to strengthen the very incumbency the opposition seeks to dislodge.
Within the emerging coalition around the ADC, these concerns are even more pronounced. With key leadership structures already reflecting a northern tilt, introducing another northern presidential candidacy risks reproducing the same imbalance that proved costly in 2023. A coalition, by its very nature, must be built on trust, equity and visible accommodation. Without these, it becomes vulnerable before it even begins.
There are, too, unresolved questions from the past. Atiku’s role in the privatisation era remains a subject of political contestation, one that an incumbent government would undoubtedly exploit in a high-stakes campaign. Elections are not won on history alone, but neither are they insulated from it. In a fiercely competitive environment, every vulnerability matters.
Yet, this is not an argument against Atiku Abubakar. It is an appeal to his legacy.
There are moments when the most powerful statement a leader can make is not in stepping forward, but in stepping back. In choosing restraint, he would not diminish his stature. He would elevate it. He would signal a commitment to balance over ambition, to nation over self, and to the long-term stability of the republic over immediate political gain.
Such a decision would not go unnoticed. It would resonate across regions, restore confidence among sceptical constituencies, and strengthen the moral foundation of any coalition seeking to offer Nigerians a credible alternative. More importantly, it would place Atiku firmly in the ranks of those who understood that leadership is as much about sacrifice as it is about pursuit.
Nigeria stands at a critical juncture. The choices made today will shape not only the outcome of the next election, but the trajectory of the nation itself. In such times, history is kinder to those who act with foresight.
The call, therefore, is simple, though not easy.
For the sake of balance.
For the sake of strategy.
For the sake of nation-building.
It may well be time for Atiku Abubakar to step aside.
* Caleb Johnson wrote in from Abuja, FCT
