By Ayodele Oni
It has been observed that insurgents fleeing other African conflicts are exploiting Nigeria’s vast, poorly governed spaces to establish criminal operations.
“There are many places that have no presence of government. So, everybody can walk in and take over for a couple of times. And then, of course, at the end of the day, if government intervenes, those people will run away.”
A Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, (NIIA), warned that Nigeria’s security crisis is being worsened by the internationalisation of terrorism, with armed groups displaced from conflicts across the Sahel and beyond now infiltrating the country.
Prof Olufemi Otubanjo spoke during an exclusive interview on _Frontline_, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, on Thursday, June 26, 2026.
Otubanjo pointed out that the threat had evolved beyond Boko Haram into a wider regional challenge involving cross-border armed networks.
“The problem is that insurgency has become so international. It used to be Boko Haram alone, but it looks like the insurgents are running away from different parts of the world, including Sudan. We are beginning to see Sudanese in Nigeria as bandits, coming to kidnap us.
Otubanjo also linked growing instability in the Sahel to climate change, citing desert encroachment, loss of farmland and collapsed livelihoods.
“We don’t know how much climate change is creating havoc in terms of population and livelihood. A lot of people have lost their homes.
“They have lost their jobs because the sand dunes have taken over their villages and communities. They are taking over their farms. And they are moving down,” he said.
He cautioned against profiling all northern migrants as security threats, stressing that many are economic refugees fleeing hopelessness.
“A lot of the northerners that we see in Lagos and we think that, oh, maybe they are terrorists, they are economic migrants. They are running away from hopelessness and joblessness in the north. Because there is no new investment,” he added.
While acknowledging persistent insecurity, Otubanjo said it would be wrong to claim the Federal Government is inactive.
“There is a challenge of security in Nigeria. No doubt about it. And we have not overcome it but, that is not to say that government is not doing what is necessary.
“It’s a process. And the people, of course, are impatient. Yes, we don’t want to see kidnapping again. We don’t want to see bandits. But it doesn’t happen like that.
He said soldiers are making daily sacrifices in the fight, with many “paying the ultimate price.
“In summary, let me say that I’m not so sure I can vouch for Tinubu’s record on terrorism, but you know that they are not laying idle. And they are working. Soldiers are dying. And so we must give it to them and pray that they will do better and get us out of this mess,” Otubanjo said.
Dismissing claims that strained ties with military-led Sahel states are driving insecurity, he said Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso face their own insurgency battles and continue to cooperate with Nigeria through the Multinational Joint Task Force. “We have a multinational joint task force that’s supposed to cooperate among countries in the Sahel to fight insurgency. And it’s working,” he said.
*Nigeria’s diplomatic posture*
Despite the security challenges, Otubanjo described Nigeria’s foreign policy as a key strength, noting the country maintains “peaceful relations with almost everyone.”
“Nigeria is one of the greatest countries in the world in terms of having no enemies,” he said. On relations with Washington, he added: “There’s no enemy-state conflict. The United States is our friend. Even between wives and husbands, there’s a quarrel once in a while. It doesn’t mean they have enemies.
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