By Emeka Asinugo, KSC

In a public statement trending in the social media and purportedly made by President Ahmed Tinubu to his “fellow Nigerians” it was said in part: “I stand before you today with a heavy heart, but also with hope and determination. Our beloved nation faces unprecedented economic challenges that demand bold and decisive action. As your President, I am committed to leading by example and making the difficult decisions necessary to put Nigeria back on the path to prosperity”.

The idea of the Nigerian President delivering such a speech, full of bold reforms and unwerving commitment to national sacrifice, as the viral social media post portrayed, naturally stirred the imaginations of many Nigerians. Many rejoiced in the belief that the days of “can any good thing come out of Nazareth?” were over, and that the peoples’ Messiah had arrived at last. Others called for caution, wondering what the Jargaban was up to this time.  But before the dust settled, the speech was confirmed as a fabrication by Chief Bayo Onanuga, a senior adviser to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

All the same, the situation once again raised critically sensitive questions concerning the art and science of governance in Africa’s most populated country, the challenges that Nigerian politicians face in trying to implement genuine reforms, and the yet to-be-tapped potential for transformative leadership.

In that fabricated speech, it was imagined that President Ahmed Tinubu announced a series of radical measures aimed at cutting down on the cost of governance, promoting fiscal responsibility and revitalizing the economy. Those measures included a 50% reduction in presidential salaries, the abolition of the Office of the First Lady, the sale of redundant presidential aircraft, consolidation of 36 government ministries, restoration of fuel and electricity subsidies, and mandates for government officials to use only locally manufactured products, including automobiles. Other steps the government was to take included a drastic reduction in the number of advisers to political appointees, the implementation of e-governance, renegotiation of government contracts, performance-based budgeting, a freeze on non-essential foreign trips, and a ban on foreign medical trips and treatment for all government officials, including the Presidency.

To all intents and purposes, those proposed measures were comprehensive and they addressed both the symptoms and root causes of Nigeria’s governance and economic challenges. In fact, the enthusiasm generated by the fake speech reflected the deep yearning among Nigerians for genuine leadership and tangible change in the way things were done in the country. The response from the government, dismissing the speech as a fabrication, merely spiked the scepticism and frustration many Nigerian citizens feel towards their leaders. The quick denial from the Presidency actually underscored the complexities and challenges that were inherent in actualizing such drastic but welcome reforms.

The current Tinubu administration, like many before it, will continue to face significant hurdles to implement meaningful reforms. For our convenience, we can categorise these hurdles into political, economic, social and structural challenges. For example, one of the most significant barriers to reform in Nigeria is the presence of deeply entrenched interests. These include political elites, business magnates and various power brokers who benefit from the status quo. Any attempt to disrupt the existing order often meets with strong resistance from these groups.

Another hurdle is official corruption. Corruption in Nigeria remains one of the most pervasive problems that affect all levels of government and society. Efforts to combat corruption have always  been inconsistent and surprisingly often compromised by those who were supposed to enforce the law. The emphasis on fiscal responsibility and transparency made in the fake speech actually struck at the heart of this issue. But Nigerian governments have ineffectively continued to battle the evil because of the value system the politicians put in place in the society. In addition to that, Nigeria’s political landscape is characterized by unpredictable changes in leadership, by electoral disputes, and at times, by violent conflicts. This instability makes long-term planning and consistent policy implementation quite difficult. Reforms require a stable and predictable political environment, and this has, unfortunately, been elusive in Nigeria.

Again, Nigeria’s economy is heavily dependent on oil revenues, which makes it vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations. This dependency has more or less stifled the growth of other sectors and made economic diversification difficult. The hypothetical speech, for example, makes a case for the restoration of fuel subsidies. While this would definitely be popular with the people of Nigeria, it would require careful balancing to avoid worsening the country’s fiscal deficits. Indeed, Nigeria’s debt levels have been rising over time. Significant portions of the budget are allocated to debt servicing. This, and the bloated cost of governance, limit the government’s ability to invest in critical infrastructure and social services. Any reform agenda, therefore, must address this debt burden to free up resources for development.

We will not gloss over the prevailing high inflation rates and unemployment levels either. They are the persistent issues that enhance poverty and inequality. Addressing these problems requires comprehensive economic policies that will stimulate job creation and control inflationary pressures. Nigeria is a huge country with about 250 ethnic groups and tens of religious affiliations. These divisions often lead to tensions and conflicts, stretching policy implementation and  governance. Building a sense of national unity, as the fake speech suggests, is crucial and challenging. The trust level between the government and the citizens should be substantial enough to allow both work in harmony for the good of everyone. But years of unmet promises and high levels of corruption succeeded in eroding the confidence of the people in their government. Rebuilding this trust requires not just promises but visible and sustained actions.

Nigeria’s infrastructural facilities, its educational institutions, the roads leading from rural producing to urban consuming areas, the power supply and healthcare facilities are all obsolete and unsupportive of its steadily growing population. The situation is seriously impeding economic growth and the delivery of public services. The focus of the hypothetical speech on reducing non-essential expenditures to fund critical infrastructure is a step in the right direction that requires substantial investment by government. And since the public sector is often characterized by inefficiency and red tape, implementing reforms such as e-governance to streamline operations and improve efficiency, as suggested in the speech, is essential and challenging in practice.

Despite the clear need for reforms, successive Nigerian governments have struggled to implement what they see as necessary. Several factors contribute to this difficulty.

First is that political leaders often focus on short-term gains and electoral cycles rather than long-term national interests. This myopic view leads to policies that are more about winning elections than solving fundamental national problems. Genuine reform requires strong political will and courage to confront powerful vested interests. Many leaders lack the determination to take on these challenges, and rather prefer to flow  with the tide and maintain the status quo.

One other factor is that the institutions responsible for implementing reforms in Nigeria are often weak and under-resourced. Strengthening these institutions is a prerequisite for any successful reform agenda. Some reforms, particularly those involving subsidy removal or austerity measures, can lead to public backlash. Managing this resistance requires effective communication and measures to mitigate the impact on vulnerable populations.

President Tinubu, like any Nigerian leader, has the opportunity to seize the moment and make a lasting impact, create a lasting name for himself. Tinubu no longer needs money. He has enough. With properties scattered around the world and an oil refinery in Malta, what other money is he looking for? He only needs to consolidate his name. He needs to carve his name boldly in gold letters in the history of this country. The hypothetical speech outlines a roadmap for transformative change that, if implemented, would address many of Nigeria’s pressing issues to his credit. And there are more reasons why President Tinubu should consider embracing such bold reforms as the fake address suggested.

Such significant reforms would cement President Tinubu’s tenure in history as a leader who rose to the occasion and made tough but necessary decisions for the good of the nation. Addressing the economic challenges head-on would lead to a more stable and prosperous Nigeria, thanks to the good and sensitive leadership of the Jargaban. We know that Nigeria’s economic stability is essential for attracting investment, creating jobs, and improving living standards. Therefore, bold actions that demonstrate a commitment to transparency, accountability, and national unity would help government rebuild public trust and foster a sense of collective purpose. A reformed and prosperous Nigeria would enhance its standing on the global stage, attracting more foreign investment and playing a more influential role in international affairs.

While the speech attributed to President Tinubu remains a fabrication, it epitomises the hopes and aspirations of many Nigerians for a better future. It highlights the urgent need for comprehensive reforms to address the country’s political, economic, social and structural challenges. While the road to reform is full of obstacles, the potential rewards are immense. President Tinubu, and indeed any Nigerian leader, has the opportunity to chart a new course for the nation. By embracing bold reforms like the ones mapped out by the fake speech, and demonstrating genuine leadership, President Tinubu can transform Nigeria into a more prosperous, united, and resilient country. The time for action is now, and the responsibility lies with both his government and Nigerian citizens to work together towards a brighter future. Looking back at that trending speech, by God, I just wish President Tinubu could heed to those words.

By Azu Ishiekwene

We met last on April 21. I went to Asaba from Lagos to promote my new book, Writing for Media and Monetising It, at Delta State University, which, according to JAMB statistics, is one of the country’s highest subscribers to Mass Communications in 2021.

Senator Ifeanyi Ubah was on the flight to Asaba that morning. I didn’t see him until we entered the arrival hall. He seemed to have added some weight for a man his height. I teased him about hisrobustly prosperous looks.He replied that journalists like me tend not to add weightbecause we’re too busy causing trouble, to which I replied that he should not go there.

We laughed and parted ways outside the terminal building. And then,on July 26, news broke that he had died only days after arriving in London. A few days earlier, he shared a video of himself looking slimmer than when I saw him in Asaba in April. He videoed himself singing ona London street with his family, and everyone looked happy.

Gone too soon

He was 52 and only reelected to the Senate last year under the Young Progressives Party (YPP) platform before he defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).Ubah was the fourth member of the current National Assembly to die this year, bringing to 29 Federal lawmakers who have died in office from 2015 to date.

The others who died this year were Isa Dongoyaro, APC member of the House of Representatives representing Garki/Babura Federal Constituency, Jigawa State, who died on May 10; Ekene Adams of the Labour Party, representing Chikun/Kajuru, Kaduna State, who died on July 16; and APC member MusiliudeenAkinremi, representing Ibadan North Federal Constituency, Oyo State, who died on July 10.

It’s not just the number of deaths that is striking. None of all four legislators who died in office this year was up to 55. The outlier was the Federal legislator Abdulkadir Jelani Danbuga, an APC member from Isa/Sabon Birni, Sokoto State, who passed away in October at 64. He diedthree months after he was sworn in, bringing the total dead in one year to five.

At 52, Ubah was the oldest federal lawmaker who died in office this year. Dongoyaro was 47; Adams 39; Akinremi 51.

By life expectancy projection, you could argue that for a country with a life expectancy of 52 years, the average age of the deceased legislators shouldn’t be too unusual.Yet, if a company specialises in life policies for lawmakers, the recent events may force it to review its premium.

Beyond the numbers

There are 469 lawmakers in both chambers of the National Assembly, with the states proportionally represented in the Senate. Representation in the House of Representativesis based on population (favouring the North), among other factors.

However, the constitutionally provided numerical advantage for the Northonly partially explains the higher proportion of legislators who died in office from the regionsince 2015.

When I raised the trend of sitting legislators dying at relatively your age, one immediate response was that it’s the prayers of discontented, ordinary citizens at work. Divine recompense, if you like. Why wouldn’t the discontents come out to vote or hold their representatives to account instead?

I have only anecdotal evidence to support my theory, but the trend elsewhere does not support the view that the deaths of our lawmakers in office are the outcome of spiritual warfare. If religion or culture plays any role at all, it reinforces conditions that not only potentially increase the chances of early deaths but also increase the casualties among the affected population.

Different elsewhere?

What do the statistics elsewhere show? According to the Congressional Research Service, 84 U.S. Congress members – 69 Representatives and 15 Senators – died in 39 years between 1973 and 2012. The average life expectancy was 72, similar to that of white males in the larger population.

In 2015, relevant data about members of the British House of Commons between 1945 and 2011 showed that mortality among the 650 members was 28 percent lower compared to the general UK population. The figure in South Africa showed that in its Fourth Parliament 2009-2014, out of 103 members of parliament replaced, 18 passed away, four of them in car accidents.

The common causes of death in these countries range from coronary artery disease to cancer, especially in the U.S. and the UK, to complications from HIV/AIDS in South Africa to diabetes, kidney-related diseases and accidents.

Because of the availability of data in these countries, it is possible to determine the cause of death and take steps to enhance safety, well-being, and longevity. It’s different in Nigeria, where disclosing the cause of death is treated as taboo.

Cost of taboo

The norm, not just in the legislature but in the broader population, is not to discuss it – an attitude more prevalent in the predominantly Muslim North, where deaths are accepted as “the will of God”, and any discussion of a post-mortem is out of the question.

Such cultural attitudes, reinforced by religion, tend to encourage poor record keeping and further nudge the population to ignore pre-existing health conditions in the fatalistic belief that “something must kill a man” when early detection or greater care could have prevented fatality. A cultural taboo that is useless to the dead and increasingly expensive for the living needs to be reviewed.

It’s bad enough that sometimes bereaved families have to bear the avoidable losses of loved ones. In the case of legislators, the death of sitting members also has consequences for the constituents and the electoral management body. The constituents are deprived of representation, and the electoral management body has to conduct by-elections.

In the last election cycle in 2023 alone, N335 billion was budgeted for elections. Still, that sum, later supplemented with N18 billion due to inflation, was not entirely for the general election but also for by-elections that have become a norm.

Court-determined results, political appointments, and, increasingly, deaths have increased legislative turnover and turned the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) into one of the world’s most overworked and undervalued election management bodies. It’s a thankless job.

New approach

We can’t continue this way. Small changescould start with journalists understanding that it is vital to get and include the cause of death in their reports instead of allowing prevailing taboos to take them hostage. Of all five deaths, including Ubah’s, there was not a single case in which the press reported the possible cause of death.

The data of consequential deaths for Nigerian lawmakers cited earlier do not include deaths of sitting members in state houses of assembly, seven of which occurred in the last nine years, bringing the total recorded in that time to 36.

Knowing the cause might not raise the dead; it might help the living take greater care.

The process for replacing dead legislators also needs to be reviewed. We have a system that makes everything expensive and unnecessarily complicated. The Constitution stipulates a by-election on top of other by-elections to fill vacancies for political appointees and court-ordered reruns. Three senatorial by-elections in any state are equivalent to the cost of a governorship election.

Beyond the tears

One way to reduce such unnecessary costs is to use the example of Germany, New Zealand or South Africa, where the next candidate on the party’s list takes the deceased’s place. Or to allow the party to nominate the replacement for the deceased since a candidate holds the seat at the party’s pleasure.

Beyond the tears of this mourning period, we should find a sustainable way to fill parliamentary vacancies. That’s one way to honour the memory of Ubah and the other dead members of the National Assembly.

Ishiekwene is the Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIPand the author of the new bookWriting for Media and Monetising It