Gov. Election: When Osun West Indigenes Are At War

By Ayodele Oni

The coast is now cleared ahead of the August 15 governorship election in Osun state as voters are expected to elect a governor, with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) clearing 14 candidates for the race.

An interesting aspect of the election is the fact that the three leading candidates in the election are from thesame senatorial district of Osun West.

They are incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke, whose defection from the Peoples Democratic Party to Accord Party has reshaped the political landscape, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) flag bearer, Najeem Salaam.

Incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke is seeking a second term on the platform of the Accord Party following his defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). As a result, neither the PDP nor the Labour Party (LP) has candidate on the ballot.

The remaining candidates include Farinloye Olarenwaju (AA), Esan Olajide (AAC), Adeagbo Opawoye (ADP), Adesina Adeyemi-Doro (APGA), Saliu Oyelami (PRP), Ogunsakin Olalekan (YPP), Adefemi Adesuyi (ZLP), Adewale Adebayo (APM), Clement Adesuyi (APP), Masilo Adeleke (Boot Party) and Taofeek Adeleke (NNPP).

INEC data shows that while the number of registered voters in Osun has increased over the years, voters turnout has steadily declined.

Registered voters rose from 1.41 million in 2014 to 1.95 million in 2022, but turnout fell from 54.17 per cent in 2014 to 46.20 per cent in 2018 and 42.37 per cent in the last governorship election in 2022.

For this election, INEC record shows that 2,339,233 million voters are registered across Osun’s 30 local government areas, 332 wards and 3,763 polling units.

 The register has grown significantly since 2023, adding more than 380,000 voters. But registration is not the same as turnout. The decisive question is not simply how many people are registered, but who will actually vote, where they will vote and which candidate can turn political enthusiasm into votes on election day.

Political analysts have attributed the declining participation to voter apathy, insecurity, distrust in the electoral process and dissatisfaction with governance, raising concerns over turnout in this year’s election.

Despite those concerns, the August 15 poll is expected to be highly competitive, with Adeleke relying on the advantages of incumbency while seeking to retain support after leaving the PDP.

His main challengers, Oyebamiji and Salaam, are expected to capitalise on the changing political dynamics to strengthen their own campaigns.

Under Nigeria’s constitutional provisions, the eventual winner must not only secure the highest number of valid votes, but also obtain at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in no fewer than 20 of Osun State’s 30 local government areas.

Ahead of the election, INEC says it has intensified voter education and grassroots sensitisation efforts to encourage participation, while urging residents to collect their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) and exercise their civic responsibility peacefully.

Preceeding the poll is violence, especially between supporters of Accord Party and APC. Security agents have intensified efforts to ensure a hitch free poll on Saturday but the gale of violence continues.

Despite being accused of impartiality on handling some of the violence, the Inspector General of Police IGP, Tunji Disu has maintained that the force remains neutral.

Disu who met with members of the Civil Societies Organisations said the meeting was a reflection of a shared commitment by the Nigeria Police Force and the CSOs to ensure a peaceful, credible, free, and fair governorship election in Osun State.

Disu stated that he was aware of the concerns expressed on election security, violence, voter intimidation, the activities of thugs, and the neutrality of security agencies.

The IGP added that the concerns were legitimate and deserve to be addressed through dialogue, transparency, and practical action.

He said: “I want to assure Nigerians that the Nigeria Police Force has taken these concerns seriously and has put in place comprehensive security arrangements for the election. The Nigeria Police Force remains a professional, apolitical, and impartial institution.

“We have no candidate, no political party, and no vested interest in the outcome of the election other than ensuring that the lawful choice of the people prevails.”

Disu said all the police officers to be deployed on election duty had been reminded of their constitutional responsibility to uphold the law without fear or favour.

 The IGP added that police would provide a secured environment for eligible voter to exercise their constitutional rights freely and without intimidation.

On how the leading candidates stand, Adeleke, as a sitting governor is banking on his achievements in the last three years in virtually all areas.

The administration disclosed that it has constructed more than 350 kilometres of roads, developed three major flyovers, expanded water projects, supported farmers, improved revenue collection and reduced the state’s debt stock by more than 40 percent.

Adeleke had defeated the APC’s Gboyega Oyetola in the 2022 governorship election by 403,371 votes to 375,027.  Can he still sustsin this? Over to the electorate.

Bola Oyebamiji of the APC has a background of being  a banker, technocrat and former Osun Commissioner for Finance under former governor Gboyega Oyetola, who later headed the National Inland Waterways Authority. His greatest undoing in the election may be the performance of the immediate past administration which put the state in debts and unpaid salary arrears. The task is however for the voters to determine.

Signals still point to a situation that the election may not be violent free like the Ekiti state poll held in June and this may cause low turn out. However with the assurance by the IGP, and number of security agents already deployed, there is hope for a hitch free exercise.