By Ayodele Oni
Despite its victory in recent governorship election in Ekiti State and other bye elections to vacant national Assembly seats,the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is using templates from the exercises to determine level of preparedness for the next year’s general elections.
The elections saw APC leading, but number of votes scored compared with registered voters in those areas were apart.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) conducted by-elections in six states.
The APC won five of the contests, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) retained the Rivers South East Senatorial seat through its candidate, Olaka Nwogu.
In Ondo South, former President of the Nigerian Medical Association (NMA), Prof. Dayo Faduyile, won the election with 68,474 votes, defeating the Allied People’s Movement (APM) candidate, Adeolu Akinwumi, who polled 1,411 votes.
Party sources revealed that the bye-elections, alongside the recent Ekiti governorship election and the forthcoming August 15 Osun governorship poll, are being treated by the APC as indicators of its readiness for the 2027 elections.
APC had boasted of scoring 500,000 votes in the June 20 poll but led others with a little well over 300,000 votes. The number of register voters in the state, according to INEC record stands at 988,923, while 720,724 collected their voters’ cards for the election.
A source at the party’s national secretariat in Abuja, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the leadership had begun a comprehensive review of the elections to identify strengths and areas requiring improvement.
According to the source, the Ondo South result attracted particular attention because of the low voter turnout, despite the district being the senatorial district of Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa and the APC facing no formidable opposition.
The source noted that fewer than 70,000 votes were cast by all parties, compared with the 2023 senatorial election in which the APC candidate, Jimoh Ibrahim, secured 110,665 votes while the PDP’s Agboola Ajayi polled 65,784 votes.
The source also compared the Ondo South figures with the Enugu North Senatorial by-election, where the APC scored 162,360 votes against the PDP’s 9,299
The source noted that fewer than 70,000 votes were cast by all parties, compared with the 2023 senatorial election in which the APC candidate, Jimoh Ibrahim, secured 110,665 votes while the PDP’s Agboola Ajayi polled 65,784 votes.
The source also compared the Ondo South figures with the Enugu North Senatorial by-election, where the APC scored 162,360 votes against the PDP’s 9,299.
He noted that although the APC lost the Enugu North seat in 2023, voter turnout in the recent by-election remained close to that of the previous general election.
“The party’s target is to surpass its 2023 presidential vote, particularly in the Southwest.
Ondo gave President Bola Ahmed Tinubu the highest percentage of votes in the region in 2023. With the turnout recorded in the by-election, there are concerns about whether the party can improve on the 369,924 votes Tinubu secured in the state during the presidential election,” the source said.
Another APC chieftain in Ondo, who also requested anonymity, said the bye-election exposed cracks within the party.
He accused Governor Aiyedatiwa of not doing enough to unite party stakeholders, alleging that comments by some of the governor’s loyalists about “retiring” some party leaders had alienated influential members.
He also cited the violence that marred the party’s congresses in Akure, saying some victims had yet to recover.
The source warned that the APC must close ranks ahead of 2027, especially now that the former Senator Nicholas Tofowomo is the Ondo South senatorial candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
But the APC Secretary in Ondo West Local Government, Comrade Omololu Abel, dismissed claims that the by-election signalled declining support for President Tinubu ahead of 2027.
In a statement posted on his Facebook page, Abel argued that comparing the by-election with the 2023 general election was misleading because the presidential and National Assembly elections held simultaneously in 2023 naturally produced higher voter turnout.
He added that fewer political parties contested the by-election, making direct comparisons statistically flawed, and stressed that off-cycle by-elections traditionally record lower participation and should not be used to gauge the APC’s electoral strength ahead of the next presidential election
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