By Akinwale Kasali
Though, the 2023 Presidential Election is still about two years away, the main opposition, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is already in trouble over who, and from which Zone, its Presidential candidate will come from.
The issue of zoning is on the front burner, putting the Party in a fix.
Also, the Party has been polarised with a faction loyal to the National Chairman of the Party, Uche Secondus, and another, calling for his exit before a National Convention is held.
The South-West PDP is also in chaos, as Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and former Ekiti State Governor, Peter Ayodele Fayose are fighting for its soul, over who controls the Party leadership in the South West.
On Wednesday, the media was awash with the controversial defection of one of PDP’S strong voices, Femi Fani-Kayode, to the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, to the disappointment of some PDP stalwarts.
The defection of Fani-Kayode was confirmed by Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State, but the denial by Fani-Kayode of his defection has also been trending, creating uncertainty.
Following the alleged defection of Fani-Kayode, there is a strong speculation from political observers that the PDP may witness a gale of defection from the Party.
Already, there are speculations that four PDP Governors may defect to the ruling party. And even though the PDP has vehemently denied it, unconfirmed sources insist that the PDP cannot strongly vouch for both the Cross River State Governor, Prof Ben Ayade, and his Zamfara counterpart, Bello Muhammed Mutawalle.
A few days ago, there was a speculation that Governor Makinde of Oyo State was planning to join the African Democratic Congress, ADC, after the Local Government Election in the State in few weeks, but the Governor strongly debunked the speculation, dismissing it as laughable.
However, political watchers say that the PDP needs to quickly resolve the issue between Makinde and Fayose if the party wants to keep Makinde. Said a party chieftain: “The party needs to tell Fayose the truth, which is that Makinde is more important to it now than Fayose. There is no way Fayose can be the leader of the Party in the region, with Makinde and other older party members and Senators there.”
The major issue bedeviling the Party is the zoning of the Presidential ticket.
The thinking within its hierarchy has been that it is too early in the day to be burdened by it as the party is currently actively working on re-engineering itself.
The PDP had posited that whatever the All Progressives Congress, APC, may do concerning its ticket at this time cannot pressure it to act and that, in any case, the PDP organs had not met to decide on it.
According to the PDP National Publicity Secretary, Kola Ologbodiyan: “The various organs of the party are yet to meet. That is all I want to say. Until the various organs of the party have come to a conclusion, I can’t say anything. But, also, note that whatever any other party is mouthing, including the APC, will not stampede the PDP. Ours is a structured political party with huge experience. And because Nigerians are looking up to our party, we must strictly organise, be meticulous and structured. That is where we are”, he said.
No doubt, there will be alignment and realignment within the Party hierachy as the 2023 Presidential Election draws closer.
The party has come under pressure from within its rank to indicate what it may do concerning zoning between the North and the South.
Alhaji Adamu Maina Waziri, a member of the PDP Board of Trustees, BOT, and former Minister for Police Affairs under former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, boldly asserted that the ticket would go to the North.
He gave his reason, which is bound to attract some concern in some quarters.
Close observers and political analysts are of the opinion that Waziri could be speaking the mind of other members of the BOT, especially, as he is a prominent member of the party from inception.
Observers say his argument for a northern presidential candidate for the PDP, though his opinion, could go a long way in directing the narrative on the choice of the more appropriate zone the candidate should emerge from.
Waziri’s argument: “Since democracy returned in 1999, which is now 22 years ago, the PDP had three presidents for 16 years; for President Obasanjo, there was unanimity in the country that he should be drafted, voted and elected because that time required an Obasanjo in Nigeria and that the country needed somebody who could fix the country, return it to its past opportunities; path of good governance and cohesion.
“He did his best but, unfortunately, in Nigeria, people must also refer to that quality that brought him back that he is a Christian and a southerner. After he finished his tenure, the successor must be a Muslim and a northerner. So, events brought in Yar’Adua who started ailing the moment he assumed the seat and he died. To maintain a system, the vice president took over, less than one year before the expiration of the tenure.
“In 2011, can we deny him (Jonathan) the seat and bring somebody to take over or allow him to continue? I think good conscience requires that he should be allowed to continue and I am one of those who supported his re-election in 2011 based on that consideration.
“It was based on a written understanding that President Jonathan was going to do one term and fix certain inequities that became visible in the administration of Nigeria. President Jonathan made a commitment and a public statement that he would like to amend the constitution, such that the tenure will be one term. He said five years or six years was better and would do electoral reform. This was because the system that brought in governments in 2003 and 2009 were disputed by the court and other observers.
“The Electoral Act would be changed and he would have several projects to embark on. But for one reason or the other, President Jonathan reneged, which became the death knell of the PDP in 2015; though, there were other contributory factors and the system was dislocated.
“As far as the PDP is concerned, the presidency should return to the North because the successor to President Jonathan in 2011 should have been a northern candidate, not Jonathan. That is the understanding in the PDP and that is what I subscribe to.
“We cannot enforce a system on APC neither can the APC enforce a system on PDP. We should have certain salient points in the PDP, just like they will have in the APC. It is expected in the APC that his (Buhari) successor should be a candidate of southern and Christian extraction.
“Even though, as far as I am concerned, President Obasanjo came on his merit; that the country needed somebody of his texture and experience. In 2011, the circumstances were said that the incumbent president should be allowed to continue. In 2015, the assumed qualities of President Buhari made him defeat President Jonathan. People should look for a qualitative leader and de-emphasise this issue of subterranean attributes like religion, region and others.”
Waziri’s focal point for the zoning of the presidential ticket to the North seems to rest on former President Jonathan’s tenure, which he believes the PDP should continue from in the belief that its political activities had been on pause.
With the foregoing, one could say that Waziri is advocating for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a Northerner from Adamawa State, who has not hidden his intention to run for the 2023 Presidential Election, having hoisted the Party’s flag at the 2019 Election.
Waziri had earlier stated that; “I supported Atiku Abubakar in the 2019 primary election; nobody gave him the ticket. He went to the trenches, fought, and battled, then won the presidential ticket of the PDP. The PDP was not looking for a presidential candidate but a president of Nigeria; somebody from the PDP got the presidential ticket of the PDP but Nigerians did not make him to be the president of Nigeria, which was the ultimate goal. So, that ticket was inconclusive.”
The submission of Waziri has, however, raised posers from Political pundits, who are of the opinion that Waziri’s argument is biased, and poses crisis for the Party ahead of the 2023 Polls.
The likes of Sule Lamido, former Governor of Jigawa State, Rabiu Kwankwaso, former Governor of Kano State and Aminu Tambuwal, incumbent Governor of Sokoto State are also eyeing the Presidential seat and have made their intentions known. They all North, pose threats to Atiku’s Presidential aspiration if the Presidential ticket is zoned to the North.
There has, however, been calls from different quarters South West and South East to hoist the Party’s Flag at the next election, which further puts the Party in a dilemma. The South-east, in particular, is angling for the ticket, but like Pastor Tunde Bakere pointed out recently, desirable as that is, it is a game of numbers.
Despite the dust Waziri’s submission raised, his proposition has further injected greater urgency into the need for the PDP to assume a definite position on its zoning principle as it affects the 2023 presidential election.
Olatunde Ibiyemi, a political analyst said the PDP may not want to disclose its position on Zoning so as not to expose its card prematurely and give it’s political opponents an edge over it.
However, political pundits are of the view that if, as expected, the APC zones its candidate to the South-west, with a running mate from the North, the PDP would do the opposite – zone the Presidency to the North, and the Vice President to the South.
