Tinubu vs the Cabal: Between the Rock and A Hard Place

By Uche Mbah

Recent events in the polity may be indicative of a jugular war between the Aso Rock Cabal- the de-facto Presidency, and a National Leader of the All Progressives Congress, A PC, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The All Progressives Congress, APC, has been embroiled in controversies majorly involving the National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, and many of the governors elected under the aegis of the All Progressives Congress, APC. The crisis was not unrelated to the primary elections organized by the party under the Party chairman, which was done under controversial circumstances. But insinuations were rife last week that Oshiomhole is just the hand of Esau to Tinubu’s voice of Jacob.

It is no longer news that Tinubu’s alleged presidential ambition drives him to sometimes unethical acts. In the political chess game, he is acknowledged a master-until the Aso Rock Cabal, hitherto referred to in hushed tones as the De facto presidency (remember Babachir Lawal and the “who is the presidency saga?) showed their manipulative hands.

Right from the onset, Tinubu had planned to control the National Assembly besides nominating the vice presidency. That was not to be: there was a Bukola Saraki to stop him via a national Assembly coup. The ambition never went well with former Chairman of the party, John Oyegun, who was said to be more loyal to President Buhari, or by extension, the Cabal. The cabal was said to be headed by the Chief of staff  to the  President, Mallam Aba Kyari. He was said to be the “Capo de Tuti” among the various factions that reared their heads taking advantage of President Buhari’s vulnerability due to illness to run the government by proxy. Sources indicate that other power blocks were effectively neutralized by the Abba Kyari group, including the secretary to the government. Now, it appears there is only one basic group.

This group, it was alleged, made it their business to neutralize Tinubu completely since they feel he is becoming too strong . Tinubu’s ambition has been said to be the presidency. He had toyed with the idea of replacing Osinbajo as the presidential candidate of the party if Buhari honors his initial promise to do only one term. To achieve this, he needed to strategize and enthrone only those loyal to him in the APC primaries. But he has since shifted focus to 2023.

The first thing was to effect a change at the helm of affairs. Knowing Adams Oshiomhole as one of his diehard loyalists, and knowing his lack of popularity, he insisted on voice vote during the convention. Oyegun was out, Oshiomhole in.

With the entrance of Oshiomhole, the new chairman was said to have started a war on all Tinubu’s detractors. In fact, Rochas Okorocha, Imo state governor was said to have alleged that Oshiomhole has been against him because he has refused Tinubu in-route into South east. According to him, Tinubu cannot be allowed to pocket South east politically as he has done in South west and a part of North Central.

Sources in the know indicate that all the states having crisis in their primaries are places where they want to place Tinubu loyalists. They are exploiting the political weakness of the man in Aso Rock. Recently, Senator Shehu Sanni  was alleged to have said the governors have no respect for Buhari.

The game was preparations, this time for 2023 elections, when, according to Bukola Saraki, Senate President, Tinubu will be out in full force for the presidency. Then he will have his loyalists strategically placed nationwide.

Tinubu’a antics have not gone unnoticed by the cabal. But they still need him for the South west vote. He has become a necessary evil that Oyegun was once quoted as saying that he planted Oshiomhole to destabilize APC. The resistance of his plan of planting his structures all over has resulted in crisis in the party in states where these overtures has been made. The cabal has the backing of the Security apparatus. Tinubu has the control of the press.Each party is deploying its own arsenal. And Oshiomhole acts like a bull in the China shop. The former union leader appears to make his own rules as he does  his master’s bidding.

Recently the cabal struck via the Directorate of Security Services, DSS. Some of the aggrieved governors wrote to DSS, since they do not trust that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, will respond since Tinubu may be involved. In fact, EFCC has recently told an Abuja Court that they cannot prosecute oshiomhole because it will cause so much political crisis. They tried to force him to sign a resignation letter-a strange request from the DSS. This Magazine was told that Tinubu immediately flew to Abuja to intervene, and met the Kogi state Governor, Yahaya Bello. As expected, they carried out the task without the knowledge of the sitting president that many mischievously referred to as lame duck. Tinubu immediately left for London for “Medical checkup” and Oshiomhole jetted out to the United states. From the US he flew to London where he had a strategy conference with Tinubu before coming back home.s it is now, with the approval of his people by INEC, Tinubu appears to have won the first round. And he is waiting for the final onslaught during the elections, where he will test his willpower against the cabal.

He has already done his test run using the Ekiti and Osun elections.And latter Kwara. But how he will handle the judiciary, who may overturn his successes in those places, remains to be seen.