Presidential Election: Real Reasons It Was Postponed

By Bayo Bernard

More than 2,500 local and international observers were deployed across the 36 states and 376 local governments in Nigeria in the last few days for the presidential and national assembly election that was to be held on February 16, 2019.

Most of them, particularly, foreigners, have now become stranded in some remotest part of the country following the postponement of the election by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.

INEC Chairman Unexpectedly Shifts Election
At exactly 2.50am, INEC chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu announced in Abuja, the nation’s capital that the election has been postponed for one week; that it will now hold on February 23.

“Following a careful review of the implementation of its logistics and operational plan, and the determination to conduct free, fair, and credible elections, the commission came to the conclusion that proceeding with the elections as scheduled is no longer feasible,” Yakubu said at a press briefing on Saturday morning in Abuja.

Outrage Over Postponement
The announcement has received mixed reactions both locally and internationally.

The Presidential candidate of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, PDP, Atiku Abubakar, said he was disappointed that the election was rescheduled.

Atiku said the postponement was deliberate to disenfranchise many voters who were already set to cast their votes.

According to him “By instigating this postponement, the Buhari administration hopes to disenfranchise the Nigerian electorate in order to ensure that turn out is low on the rescheduled date.

“Their plan is to provoke the public, hoping for a negative reaction, and then use that as an excuse for further anti-democratic acts.

“As such, I call on all Nigerians to be patient. We have tolerated the maladministration of this government for four years. We can extend our tolerance a few more days and give them our verdict via our votes,“ Atiku said

The PDP on its part said the shift in the election date was unacceptable in the sense that INEC had enough time to prepare for the election.

The National chairman of the party, Prince Uche Secondus said the shift was part of the many antics of President Muhamadu Buhari and APC to cling to power at all cost.

Secondus: “Having failed in all their nefarious options to enable them cling on to power, the APC and the INEC came up with the idea of shifting election an action that is dangerous to our democracy and unacceptable.

“With several of their riggings failing, they have to force INEC to agree to a shift in the election or a staggered election with flimsy excuses pre-manufactured for the purpose.

“For the avoidance of doubt the PDP sees this action as wicked and we are also aware of other dubious designs like the deployment of hooded security operatives who would be ruthless on the people ostensibly to scare them away.”In his reaction  President Buhari described the INEC as disappointing. And on its part, the All Progressives Congress, APC, blamed the PDP, which it alleged forced INEC to postpone the election.

According to Festus Keyamo, spokesman for the President Buhari Presidential Campaign Organisation, PDP was to blame for the shift, alleging that PDP was trying to repeat what it did in 2015, when the election date was shifted for one month.

PDP, Keyamo said“,did the same as the ruling Party in 2015, when it realized the game was up, by orchestrating the postponement of the 2015 elections by six weeks.

“Now, it may be up to its old trick again. We have earlier raised the alarm that the PDP is bent on discrediting this process the moment it realized it cannot make up the numbers to win this election.”

Election Shifted for Six Weeks In 2015
In 2015 the presidential election was postponed for six weeks, from February 14 to March 28.

The then government had blamed security challenges, particularly, the Boko Haram attacks, in some parts of the North east for the postponement.

A number of areas  were firmly under the control of the insurgents at the time, thus raising fears that it would be impossible to conduct election under such conditions.

Meanwhile, the postponement by the Jonathan administration was trenchantly condemned then by the opposition APC at the time, alleging that the then leader and PDP were trying to rig the election.

Jega Advised that the Elections be shifted
A reliable told the magazine that it was then chairman of INEC, Professor AtahiruJega, that suggested to Jonathan the need to shift the election over security challenge across the country and the low collection of PVC in most states, especially,  in the South.

Tinubu Rebuffed Jonathan Over Postponement
According to him, the ex-President had tried to seek the understanding of some APC leaders on the matter but was rebuffed.

“President Jonathan called Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu to tell him the reasons Jega gave on the need to postpone the election. But rather than show understanding, he told the president that his party will not accept the postponement,” the source said.

Adding that “the poll has now shifted today, they are in power but obviously they have shown no capacity to organize a free, fair and peaceful election”

May be the source is right, considering that the postponement will lead to serious consequences for the whole gamut of the election process.

Confusion, Observers Stranded
Some say the shift will reduce the morale of international observers who were already in the country to monitor the election.

“A number of observers may be forced to return to their countries never to return on the rescheduled date.

Many of them will need to rebook their flight tickets, hotel accommodation and even inform their families and friends at home on the change of plans.

This will not be easy, at all, considering that they only have one week,” Jude Adejimi, a logistic analyst told the magazine.

The problem will be more for security agency who have been deployed to monitor the election, other said.

Impact On Security Agencies
The Army, Airforce, Navy, Police, Civil Defense Corps and other para-military personnel have been deployed across the country for the election.

“Are you saying that all of them will now have to go back and then return in few days. This is a serious problem and I think, in the future, a proper arrangement for a seamless election to hold across the country should be made”, Jasmine Okeke, another analyst said.

He explained that the federal government will also need to declare another public holiday for students next week and “as it seems, the students will now have to go to school on Monday, contrary to what was announced earlier.”

Civil Society Reacts
Chima Amadi of the Centre For Transparency Advocacy said “there would be serious consequence” for the postponement.

He said it’s obvious that INEC was not fully prepared for the election. “INEC is mopping up PVCs” to make up for shortfall in other areas. The Commission must “communicate well to Nigerians why they postponed the election,” he stated.

Also, Samson Itodo, Executive Director, YIAGA, one of the umbrella body of young people in the country said the association was highly disappointed in INEC and federal government.

He explained that it was wrong for INEC, having admitted that they have logistic problems, to want to conduct the election.

Underscoring the effect of the shift on election monitors he said” Monitors will be stranded across the country. The time INEC chose to make the announcement was unacceptable.”

Auwal Musa, Executive Director, Civil Society Legislative Advocacy, said the shift has earned for the country an imaginable disrepute as a country that’s not capable of conducting free and fair election.

“It’s a national and global disgrace” he said, adding that there should be sanctions in the future for agents of government who failed in their duties.

But as it is, the situation for which the INEC now based its postponement leaves much in doubt, some analysts said, even as allegation looms that the electoral umpire must have been pressured to carry out the action.

Malami Instigates Postponement
Recall that the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, on Wednesday, February 13, wrote INEC chairman on the need to reschedule the governorship and state assembly elections in Zamfara state, originally scheduled for March 2, to enable APC field candidates for the elections.

Aside Zamfara, the APC will also not present candidates in Rivers state.

APC desperately needs these state to win the presidential election, the magazine was told.

The rate of desperation, one PDP stalwart in Rivers state,  who craved anonymity, because of the security situation in the state, told the magazine, was displayed by the Minister of Transportation and ex-Governor of the state, Rotimi Amaechi, when at the Presidential Campaign held in the state last week, he vowed that winning the election was a do-or-die, that there will be war

“The president was right there when Amaechi was singing Igbo war songs, threatening fire and brimstone. What other evidence do you need to prove their desperation?” the source said.

Close watchers of events in the country said the shift was meant to give the APC advantage over PDP, having realized that it would lose if the election went ahead as scheduled.

It has already been alleged that plans were afoot to make sure that election did not hold in states where the ruling party consider critical. Among others, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Benue states featured.

This would be done by making sure that election materials arrived late in those places and other logistics problems, such as security, which will now be used as excuse to move the election forward, the magazine was told.

For instance, the aircraft carrying election materials to be used in Enugu state was not allowed to land on the excuse that the weather was bad.

Also few days before, over 500 card readers meant for Anambra election had been razed by fire.

Election materials were also burned by unknown persons in other two states, Abia and Benue. And in Kano, loads of already thumb-printed ballot papers were seized by the police.

Even though INEC claimed they had replaced the burnt card readers, the magazine learned from a source that the shortfall was “collected from states where INEC is planning not to hold election, until further notice.” The magazine was not able to confirm this allegation at the time of going to press.

Kaduna state is also part of the states that INEC allegedly planned “to move election forward over violence” the source told the magazine.

“All of these incidents were done deliberately to give the impression that it’s not safe to hold election at this time,” another source said.

US, UN, EU Warn FG Against Staggered Election
According to various sources who spoke on the issue, pressure had been mounted on the federal government by the US, UK, UN and EU to jettison any plan to organize a staggered election as such will raise credibility problem for the election.

According to one European source, the international community was not happy with the shoddy manner the election in Osun state governorship election was conducted last October, and that the block had warned that staggered elections will raise credibility issues for the Buhari administration.

INEC declared Gboyega Oyetola of the APC winner of that election, even though it was condemned by multiple international observers and PDP which said the election was rigged.

For now, confusion reigns as those who travelled out for election from their places of residence are not sure of what to do.