By Azu Ishiekwene
“Arsenal fans are currently over the moon, testosterone pumping – and why not? The story will not change in 2024… the odds are not in Arsenal’s favour… My forecast is that despite setting his ducks in a row, (Godwin) Obaseki’s candidate would lose in September. His biggest undoing would be the large army of political enemies he has created in the last eight years – some inevitably from the reforms he introduced, but others, and in a far larger number, avoidably from his mean-spirited, opportunistic politics.”
This is the fifth in my series of annual forecasts. For a part-time Nostradamus, my record has been above average. The forecasts usually come earlier, in the last week of December. Yet, the potency of this edition is not diminished by the delay.
Imade a particularly catastrophic forecast for last year, which has left a puree of tomatoes on my face and those of a significant segment of the liberal press in the US, led by CNN: that President Joe Biden would defeat Donald Trump. That didn’t happen—not because Biden didn’t beat Trump, but because Biden was not in the race.
There were a few other misses, but on the whole, whether it was about Arsenal, the value of the exchange rate by year-end, or when Dangote and the public refineries would start production, I was bang on the money.
A word for ministers
Let me start with some unsolicited advice for politicians, especially President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ministers. Their biggest mistake this year would be to take the President’s statement during the December media chat that he won’t replace them at face value.
He said he wouldn’t replace them, not that he would keep them at any cost. I forecast that by May 29 or earlier, the president will replace ministers, especially those who have since outlived their IOU value. Aspressure mounts ahead of the pre-election year, no fewer than five of them willbe replaced or reassignedby the end of2025.
Fighting Tinubu
It’s 2025, but it feels like 2027.It has been this way since the end of last year. Leading politicians from the North, notably former Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido, spent much of 2024 regretting that the region supported Tinubu and swooning over how to stop his reelection. The schemes will reach a fever pitch this year as the government presses ahead with the Tax Reform Bills, which are perceived as anti-North.
The tax bills won’t be the only thing over which Northern politicians would raise a battle cry, even though it’s unlikely that they will stop the passage of a watered-down version.
When the government’s deadline against keeping dollars outside the banking system expires in July, those saving the greenback for the next election will cry foul and demand an extension, if not an outright rejection of the policy. They will arguethat 1) the government has no right to tell them what to do with their money and 2) it targets Northerners, who are dominant operators in Bureaus de Change.
In the same way, the census, as planned, is unlikely to be held this year. Some states, especially those in the opposition, would declare it an ingenious attempt at gerrymandering ahead of 2027. If the federal government goes ahead, they might repeat what happened in Lagos in 2006, when Tinubu was governor: mount a legal challenge, failing which the states would conduct their separate “census” and declare their figures valid.
Opposition in disarray
Yet, this is the year of the ultimate scramble for presidential favours, especially among politicians who can’t afford to wait for another four years in the cold. They’ve been joining the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in trickles. As the shambles of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) becomes a ruinous heap and the Labour Party produces more heat than fire, more and more will flock to the APC.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar will remain the PDP’s albatross despite his efforts to act as its best card. Those hoping for an opposition coalition to challenge the APC in 2027 will be disappointed. The likely arrowheads of such a coalition—Atiku, NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, and political strategist-in-a-limbo Nasir El-Rufai—would be unable to find a common ground.
Ambition, ego, and a perennial distrust of one another will ruin these strange bedfellows. Whatever is left of their political remains will be buried by their heartbroken followers. The new exiting class of second-term governors, likely from the South West and the North East, with money, ambition and a desire for fresh conquests, particularly Seyi Makinde and Bala Mohammed,will overplay their reach.
Twice lucky
Governor Charles Soludo will likely be returned for a second term in November despite snippers from his party, APGA, and outside.
Where’s the money?
On the national stage,I worry about the economy. My advice is to view government officials’ rose-tinted forecasts with caution. The coming onstream of the Dangote Refinery, especially, and the partial production from the Port Harcourt Refinery helped ease pressure on foreign exchange demand, mainly because crude was purchased in naira. It would be interesting to see how this naira-for-crude arrangement will hold, especially as Dangote Refinery expands its markets outside Nigeria.
Prices would likely be more stable, with marginal improvements in the macroeconomic outlook. However, with the relatively high debt level, more borrowing crowding out private sector credit, and 2,604 uncompleted projects inherited from previous governments, it will be hard to find cash.
Feeding the cash cow
Revenue will continue to be a problem for at least two reasons: First, the government’s main cash cow, crude oil earnings, is unlikely to reach the anticipated 2m bpd, and the benchmark oil price of $75 pb might prove overambitious.
Multiple sources told me that current production levels are around 1.4-1.5m bpd, discounting for condensate. However, unless the government radically restructures the NNPCL, the weak and heavily politicised structure will underperform.
Shell’s $5 billion investment in Bonga is good news but will not crystalise until 2028/29. There are no new investments in the country’s mineral mining leases that NNPCL incompetently manages to inspire confidence or significantly relieve the current budget cycle.
Second, the government’s effort to improve farm output and moderate food inflation—currently the most severe threat to social security—is still in its early stages. Food inflation will remain relatively high this year, likely around the five-year average of 35 percent. Retooling the value chain to deliver results beyond the current subsistence levels will require radical steps for at least another cycle to bear fruit.
Managing discontent
To stave off social discontent from hardship, governments at all levels must invest more in the weak and vulnerable, especially the growing army of urban youths who will drift more into cybercrimes in significant numbers this year. As for security, the final piece of the puzzlefor establishing the state police will likely be completed this year, leaving only the paperwork for its implementation.
Between Arsenal and Trump
Is this finally the year broken Red Hearts will mend, the Year of Arsenal? It would be easier for Trump to take Canada as the 51st State of the US than for Arsenal to win the Premier League in May. If the club is exactly where it was this time last year (40 points after 20 games), the odds are that it will end up where it did in 2024: nearly there. The crown in 2025 is Liverpool’s to lose.
Trump 2.0’s pledge to execute the most extensive mass deportation in US history, just like his dubious promise in his first term to build a wall at Mexico’s expense, will be mired in litigation, logistics, and obstacles by some states and other institutions. It will hardly take off. However, he would have much greater leeway with his protectionist trade policies, potentially sparking retaliation from major US trading partners.
The great thing about Trump is that he won despite evidence that he would be the most unguarded US president in recent history. Nothing he does will surprise.
Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of the book Writing for Media and Monetising It.
