OPINION: PDP Crisis, Shaky Road To 2027

By Jide Babalola

Things appear to be falling apart in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), once a dominant force in Nigeria’s political landscape.  It is becoming clearer that the centre of a political party that had boasted of holding on to power for 60 years can no longer hold. A party of ideals, ethos, structure and spread, is now stuck in the mud. And there is no sign of resurgence soon, as the party is mired in crises since 2022.

Gone are the days that the PDP was either in control of the central government or many of the states. In the Fourth Republic, the party, formed in 1998, swept through the land as a hurricane. It ruled at the centre.  It also had the reins of government in 31 states. The party swallowed many other political parties. It was formidable and appealing to many politicians at the time.

The party is not new to troubles, some of which are self-inflicted. In spite of its internal squabbles, the PDP had been steady. But, things nosedived when it lost the centre.  The defeat that occurred in 2015 when former President Goodluck Jonathan lost to the immediate past President Muhammadu Buhari, was a turning point for the worse for the opposition party. Now, it controls only 13 states.

While permutations have begun ahead of 2027 general elections, the future of the PDP in the current political landscape is bleak. The leading opposition party is contending with a myriad of internal and external issues gradually eroding its spread and dominance on power.

Crisis of Leadership and Vision

Beyond the immediate conflicts of leadership and factional battles, the PDP is also grappling with an identity crisis that could prove fatal if not addressed promptly. The party, which once prided itself as the custodian of Nigeria’s democracy, is at crossroads.

Since its formation in 1998, the PDP has been synonymous with the ideals of national unity, economic reform, and democratic governance. However, in recent years, these ideals have become blurred, with the party increasingly defined by its internal struggles rather than its policy positions or ideological commitments. The lack of a cohesive posture vision has made it difficult for the PDP to assert itself.

Fast forward to the aftermath of the 2023 elections, there was growing concern within the party’s ranks about the need to redefine the PDP’s mission and values. Some members have called for a return to the party’s founding principles, while others advocated for a complete overhaul of its leadership structure and political strategy.

Genesis of Conflicts

It appears that the seeds of the current crisis were sown in the lead-up to the 2023 general elections; however, many analysts believe that it goes farther into the months before the 2015 elections.

Late President Musa Yar’Adua on a joint ticket with Dr. Goodluck Jonathan had won the presidential election in 2007. Unfortunately, two years into their tenure, Yar’Adua died. His vice was eventually sworn in, who completed that tenure and also contested the presidential election in 2011 and won.

But the north felt short-changed, as they insisted that it was their turn to lead the country. This led to the defection of some bigwigs, particularly from the north extraction from the party. Vice President Atiku Abubakar and other political gladiators had worked against Jonathan.

Then, the party lost the presidential election to the hurricane All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015.  And the downward journey of the party has been rapid.

Immediately past President Muhammadu Buhari from the north occupied Aso Rock for eight years.  After his presidency, the popular consensus was that power should shift to the south.

In 2023, Abubakar decided to exercise his right and didn’t give in to the clamour for southern presidency. He won the primary and became the candidate of the party.

His insistence to get the ticket led to some chieftains of the party like Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) leaving the PDP with their loyalists.  Five PDP governors under G5 Group, who didn’t leave the party also worked against candidate Atiku.

Following Abubakar’s emergence as the PDP’s candidate, frictions accelerated when it became clear that he would not choose Nyesom Wike as his running mate. The scenario led to a bitter feud that spilled into the public domain.

This acrimony deepened when the party leadership, under the chairmanship of Iyorchia Ayu, was accused of favoring the northern bloc, further alienating the southern members. For Wike and other PDP stakeholders, it was inconceivable that the party’s national chairmanship as well as the presidential ticket would remain in the north as Ayu is from Benue state and Atiku is from Adamawa.

The crisis reached a crescendo when five aggrieved governors, known as the G-5 or Integrity Group, openly rebelled against the party’s leadership. This group, consisting of Wike, Samuel Ortom (Benue), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu), and Seyi Makinde (Oyo), demanded Ayu’s resignation as a precondition for supporting Atiku’s candidacy. The refusal of the party leadership to accede to their demands resulted in the G-5 boycotting the 2023 presidential campaign, significantly weakening the PDP’s chances at the polls. The fallout from this division was evident in the election results, where the PDP failed to secure the presidency and performed poorly in several key states.

APC As An Adversary

While the PDP has been embroiled in internal strife, the APC has been quietly consolidating its power. Aside from bringing PDP strongman, Nyesom Wike and former Ebonyi state governor, Umahi on board as ministers, the APC, under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu, has embarked on a series of political maneuvers designed to weaken the opposition. This includes wooing disgruntled PDP members into its fold and exploiting the divisions within the PDP to its advantage.

The APC’s strategy has not been lost on political analysts, who argue that the ruling party is deliberately stoking the fires of discord within the PDP to prevent it from mounting a credible challenge in 2027. “The APC is playing a long game; they know that a fragmented PDP is easier to defeat than a united one,”noted a political analyst. “

The Lingering Crises

As the party licks its wounds from the 2023 electoral defeat, the crises within the PDP have only deepened.

One of the key aspects of the current turmoil is the leadership tussle that has various dimensions. Until a few months ago, the tussle centred around the legitimacy of Iyorchia Ayu’s leadership as a major bone of contention. Despite calls for his resignation after the 2023 elections, Ayu remained defiant, leading to further factionalization within the party, with the National Working Committee (NWC) split between supporters of Ayu and those calling for a change in leadership to reposition the party ahead of 2027. The party was in a fix over Ayu because of the cases instituted in court but commendably, he opted to withdraw from court.

Now, energies have been redirected by some party members towards having the acting national chairman, Ambassador Ilyas Damagum removed but it is a very complex matter that may never be actualized until he hands over at PDP’s national convention next year. Even if Damagum is removed or prevailed upon to resign from his current position, he will revert to his substantive position as Deputy National Chairman (North).

Also, even though the party will not admit it, ethnic and regional divides remain a lingering challenge in a once cohesive national party. The PDP has long struggled with balancing its regional interests, but the current crisis has exacerbated these divides. The party’s southern members felt marginalized, particularly after the 2023 elections, where the perception was that the northern bloc had unfairly dominated the party’s decision-making processes. This rift has made it difficult for the PDP to present a united front. People like Chief Olabode George may end up being proven to be right with his insistence that issues about the genesis of current problems need to be thrashed out first at a roundtable before expecting success in the reconciliation process.

Then, a series of legal battles have been hampering issues within the party. Several court cases further complicated the PDP’s woes after the 2023elections. These legal wrangling have not only distracted the party but have also sapped its resources, which could have been better utilized in preparation for the next electoral cycle. While that is over, other cases, especially in states like Rivers and Edo, continue to haunt efforts towards consolidation of party unity.

There have also been a series of defections and loss of confidence. The PDP has suffered a wave of defections since 2022, with several key members, including former governors and legislators, jumping ship to the APC or other parties. This exodus has been fuelled by the perception that the PDP is a sinking ship, plagued by internal squabbles and an inability to present a viable alternative to the APC.

Another aspect of PDP’s lingering crises is the intra-party frictions in some states, Rivers state is by far most obvious but others are simmering below the surface. For instance, in Edo state, Wike loyalists like Chief Dan Orbih, the leader of the Legacy Group that comprises stakeholders whom outgoing Edo state Governor Obaseki met in the party have resolved not to support Obaseki’s nominee, Asue Ighodalo in the September 21, 2023 Edo state governorship election.

Differences of opinion over the prospects of rebuilding strength through a merger with other political parties continue despite official pronouncements that it has been resolved. Looking at what the opposition was able to achieve against the ruling party in Senegal and other countries, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has remained a strong advocate of having a merger between PDP and other parties. However, loyalists of FCT Minister Wike as well as the PDP Governors’ Forum and the party’s leadership led by Ambassador Damagum have expressed complete dislike for the idea.

In a June 5, 2024, official statement, PDP’s National Publicity Secretary, Mr. Debo Ologunagba emphatically stated that talks about the party’s involvement in merger discussions with any political party in preparation for the 2027 general election are mere ruse and utterly misleading, adding that PDP is satisfied with the increasing influx of old and new members and the party expects other old members to return to PDP rather expect the party’s merger with their current party.

An even more emphatic opposition to the idea was presented by the chairman of PDP Governors’ Forum, Governor Bala Mohammed who described those calling for mergers as ‘marauders’ at the end of the forum’s recent meeting in Abuja.

He said that such marauders are plotting to hijack a faction for the purpose of forming a coalition with some other parties. “We are aware that there are some marauders hanging around somewhere, trying to factionalize our party and take one faction to go and do coalition (with another party); we are not going to allow that,” said the Bala Mohammed while reading the PDP Governors’ Forum communiqué after a four hours’ closed-door meeting at Akwa Ibom Governor’s Lodge in Abuja.

Much more than all the factors above is the issue of whether to restrict contention for the 2027 presidential ticket to southern aspirants alone or again, allow a repeat of the 2023 situation where Alhaji Atiku Abubakar featured. This is further complicated by the fact that FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike has explicitly declared his intention to mobilize for the re-election of President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

Crises

In a bid to stem the tide of discontent, the PDP has made several attempts at reconciliation. Notable among these is the establishment of a National Reconciliation Committee led by former Governor of Osun state, Colonel Olagunsoye Oyinlola (rtd). The committee, which is to build on previous reconciliation efforts of a similarly named committee led by ex-Senate President, Senator Bukola Saraki in 2022, was tasked with bridging the divides within the party and bringing aggrieved members back into the fold. However, there are anxieties that the efforts of the new committee meet with limited success, as the entrenched positions of some party leaders and their proxies appear capable of making genuine reconciliation difficult.

Disciplinary Steps

Serious efforts to make FCT Minister Nyesom Wike to ‘pay’ for leading the G-5 to facilitate APC’s victory and PDP’s loss in the 2023 presidential election started immediately after the elections but for one reason or another, things have not worked smoothly for its advocates. The Nation learnt that an August 2023 meeting of PDP stakeholders, including Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, at the Abuja residence of High Chief Tom Ikimii had tried to reach a conclusion but complications arose.

While loyalists of Atiku want Wike to face severe sanctions like a lengthy suspension or total expulsion for his role in the 2023 presidential elections, others, including Wike’s loyalists also point at the anti-PDP roles played by Atiku Abubakar in previous presidential elections.

So, the question that still lingers till date is: from what year does the offence of ‘anti-party’ allegations begin to take effect? If it is restricted to 2023, Wike and his loyalists as well as some past and serving PDP governors would face serious sanctions but if it is extended to previous years, Atiku Abubakar and others who are advocating for the sanctions would get drawn in too.

Several party stakeholders have demonstrated a keen awareness that without resolving lingering crises, PDP could be taking huge risks with any 2027 game plan. In May 2023, Atiku Abubakar made a public appeal for unity within the party, acknowledging that the internal divisions were a major factor in the PDP’s electoral loss.

Despite these efforts, the cracks within the PDP remain visible. The on-going power struggle within the party’s leadership, coupled with the regional and ethnic divides, continues to undermine any attempts at forging a cohesive strategy for the future.

No More Internal Crisis?

Responding to questions on PDP’s internal crises, PDP’s National Publicity Secretary, Mr. Debo Ologunagba asserted that contrary to widespread obsession with the perception of the PDP as a party in crises, the party is doing well in advancing the cause of democracy in Nigeria. Speaking on a TVC television programme, ‘Beyond 100 days” and themed PDP: A Party Divided Against Itself?” Ologunagba argued that while many assume that PDP is continuously consumed by frictions from contending interests, the party’s robust constitution and structures have continued to hold it firmly together since 1999.

According to Ologunagba, the party has continued to exercise various internal mechanisms backed by its structures and party constitution to continue giving the nation a great example of what a genuine political party should be in a democracy, adding that the recent decision to constitute two new committees is an example.

 The Road To 2027: A Bleak Outlook?

The PDP’s internal crises, if left unresolved, pose a significant threat to the party’s chances of displacing the APC in the 2027 general elections. The party’s inability to present a united front has already cost it dearly in the 2023 elections, and the lingering divisions could further erode public confidence in the PDP as a viable alternative to the ruling party.

Moreover, the defections and legal battles have weakened the party’s structure at both the national and state levels, making it difficult to mount an effective campaign in 2027. The APC, despite its own challenges, appears to be more stable and better organized, giving it a potential advantage as the next election cycle approaches.

As the PDP faces this existential crisis, the words of one of its founding members, Jerry Gana, ring true: “The PDP must rise above its internal contradictions and return to the ideals that made it great. Otherwise, it risks becoming a footnote in Nigeria’s political history.”