OPINION: Grid Collapse: A trillion Dollar Economy Impossible Without Stable, Reliable Electric Power

By Adekunle Adekoya

On Wednesday, the national power grid managed by the Transmission Company of Nigeria, TCN, collapsed for the 11th time in 2024, leaving the country in complete blackout. Some people said that it wasn’t the 11th but the 12th time, on the average, a collapse of once a month.

Data from the National System Operator, NSO, showed that as of 2pm that day, none of Nigeria’s 26 power plants was on the grid.

Confirming the collapse of the grid, Abuja DisCo, Eko DisCo and Ikeja Electric apologised to their customers over the failure in supply.

It is only in our country that this shame will endure, to the consternation of all victims and nothing will happen to anybody, not even a query. We seem so used to the negative, including mass killings and kidnaps perpetrated by criminal gangs that we have stopped being surprised by their occurrence.

I had written about this before, wondering how, in a bid to simplify the problem, we don’t use one switch for all the appliances in a building. Somehow, we have insisted that just one switch is enough for the whole country.

I also averred that this needs a political solution, since politicians make policy which technocrats simply implement. By March, the grid had collapsed four times, and between then and now should have been ample time to look at the situation dispassionately towards generating a solution that will endure. No. All we see are just agbadas flying from one private jet to one airport terminal or the other in pursuit of things that have little to do with the welfare of the people who elected them.

What is worrisome about the power situation is the unrelenting release of platitudes on what will be done, can be done, but which never gets started and will never get done. It is a sign of mega unseriousness in the management of public affairs.

A few weeks ago, the National Bureau of Statistics released GDP growth figures, which the Presidency celebrated. In a statement, a presidential aide reiterated the president’s commitment to growing a trillion-dollar economy. Words that have no relation to reality. How do you grow a trillion dollar economy without stable, reliable electric power? Of all the power generation options available globally today, we remain stuck somehow with only hydro and thermal options.

It is clear that there exists a lot of potential with other options, especially solar and wind. Where are the policy frameworks to actualise these? Zip.

Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu told Nigerians that by year end, 150 MW of electricity would have been added to the national grid.

Adelabu said this while speaking with State House correspondents after a meeting between President Bola Tinubu and visiting German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Adelabu added: “We have completed about 80 per cent of the pilot stage, which includes the importation, installation, and commissioning of 10 power transformers and 10 power mobile substations.

“These efforts have already added 750 megawatts to our grid capacity, and by year-end, an additional 150 megawatts will be realised upon full completion of the pilot phase.”

These efforts might come to nought if there isn’t a mindset change to deal with the single national grid. I’m no engineer, but common sense dictates that the single national grid cannot efficiently serve a huge area like Nigeria. We simply need to have smaller grids, perhaps on regional basis.

If not, the 750 MW already added and the 150 being expected, according to Adelabu, will remain shut-in due to inadequacies of the existing grid.

In short, breaking up the grid will open up an audit of aged and obsolete equipment, which will be easier to deal with. What I think Minister Adelabu should do is to engage his engineers on blueprints for smaller, more manageable grids and get the necessary political support to actualise it. Our electricity conundrum is not insoluble; what has kept us in the dark all these years is the mindset that insists on one grid. Most Nigerians agree that the little we generate can serve us more if better distributed. Distribution starts with transmission. In fact, I venture further to suggest complete privatisation of the transmission system after the grid has been broken down. What is National Control Centre? It is not only unneeded, but a carry-over from our experiences with military command and control. Even then, modern militaries function better with decentralised control systems, so long as operations are in tandem with political objectives.

One other thing being overlooked is electricity supply based on need and demand. Apart from the Lagos-Ibadan axis, the other part of the country that needs all the electricity it can get is the South-East. There are clusters of home-grown industries and enterprises in that part of the country that have thrived so far on generator power and will do better with public electricity. All these and more are what should inform ministerial policy initiatives on power.

Then, our state governors also have a lot to do about this. Since removal of subsidy, far more money has flown into state coffers than before. Let governors invest in power projects, instead of competing to build unviable airports that gulp billions with little effect on their states’ economies. Power projects will yield greater dividends than airports, and most of them won’t cost as much as airports.

Now that local government autonomy is assured by the recent Supreme Court judgment, local governments too can weigh in and invest in power, perhaps solar or wind. We need to break out of the binding chain of generated power with its convoluted and expensive distribution systems and embrace embedded power. But, let the politicians put on their thinking caps and provide the policy frameworks to make this happen. In terms of national development, it’s morning, yet!