Globally renowned agency, Fitch has predicted a win for Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressive Congress, APC in the 2023 presidential election.
A Subsidiary of the global ratings agency, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research, placed Tinubu, a former Lagos state governor ahead of other presidential candidates, in a race analysts have described as a three horse race between Tinubu of the APC, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP.
Fitch said in a report on Thursday that Tinubu “is best placed to win” the 2023 presidential election”
According to the agency, Tinubu’s victory will however lead to turbulence because he and his running mate, Kassim Shetima are Muslims, saying their presidency will further polarize the country along religious lines.
The report stated that the presidential candidate of LP will not win the election, despite his social media popularity, and that his supporters will protest the emergence of Tinubu as president, by causing violence across the country.
Fitch further stated that Atiku Abubakar will not win the election because many of his party’s supporters are now rooting for Obi.
Obi was in the PDP before he decamped to LP earlier this year in a bid to vie for the highest office in the country.
His defection, analysts say, has narrowed the support for Atiku, because they are both “fishing from the same pond” according to those watching what is happening in the major opposition party.
The development, Fitch has predicted will work in favour of Tinubu who will be efit from the split in the PDP.
Fitch said, “Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the APC.
“Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.
“Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states, as well as between Christians and Muslims. A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians.
“In addition, Obi’s supporters – mostly young, urban voters – are likely to question the fairness of the electoral process, especially after recent polls have predicted a win for Obi. These dynamics are likely to engender political unrest following the February vote.
“As a result, we have revised down the Social Stability component of our proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) from 30.0 to 25.0 previously (scores out of 100; lower score implies higher risk). This brings Nigeria’s overall STPRI score from 46.3 to 45.0. Social Stability Remains.
“Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (APC) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online. Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided,” the agency said.
Why Obi will lose the election, Fitch further states:
“it would be herculean for the Labour Party which lacks structure and not having candidates for most of the positions for state Assemblies, House of Representatives, Senate and governorship, to deliver above those that have stakes for such positions.”
Discover more from The Source
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
