Edo 2020: Obaseki, Oshiohmole’s Dilemma

By Ebere Levi Onye

Though engaged in a fierce battle for the soul of Edo, ahead gubernatorial election in the state next year, Governor Godwin Obaseki and his estranged political  godfather and predecessor, Adam Oshiohmole,  who is also the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress, APC, are both in a quagmire as to how to avoid being consumed politically by their tiff, this magazine can authoritatively reveal.

Caught Between the Devil and Deep Sea

Obaseki and Oshiohmole are caught between the devil and the deep sea. Watchers of the unfolding dogfight between godfather and godson say a pragmatic approach is needed to resolve the logjam else, both men lose head and tail.
While Oshiohmole is not averse to giving his estranged godson the Ambode treatment by denying  him the  APC return ticket, The Source learnt that the APC boss is also wary of provoking an electoral upset in the state.

“Oshiohmole is aware, and also concerned that his unnecessary plots to stop Obaseki’s second term is capable of delivering Edo to the laps of  the People’s Democratic Party, PDP on a platter of gold. He is worried that if APC loses Edo, the moral fibre to cling to office as the National Chairman of the APC would have been severely eroded”, an APC stalwart, who described himself as “non- aligned” , situated the unsettling dilemma starring the former governor in the face.

He told The magazine that the duo were headed for mutually assured destruction, politically, unless they allow common sense to prevail.

On Obaseki’s part, reliable Government House sources confided in the Magazine that  the governor, despite his boasts of having the Edo APC in his pocket, and optimistic of winning the party’s guber ticket for the election, is actually scared stiff about the likelihood of being shut out of contention for the ticket at the eleventh hour, by which time the PDP, alleged to be his joker, would have closed the door against him by fielding a candidate.

The Plots, the Consequences

The Source gathered that Oshiohmole’s supporters are pressurising him to strike at Obaseki when he least expected a sucker punch.
One of the cards on the table is said to be the dissolution of the Edo chapter of the party, currently loyal to Obaseki, a few months to the primary and, constitute  an interim Executive wholly loyal to the APC National Chairman.This Interim Executive will then, immediately, announce the expulsion of the governor from the party.

It is on the basis of his expulsion that Obaseki will be excluded from the primary election to select the APC flag bearer.

Fear of Backlash

However, some loyalists of the former governor are against the anti- Obaseki moves.They insist that the backlash will ultimately destroy the party’s chances at the polls. The fear is that if Obaseki is denied the APC ticket and misses that of  the PDP he will assiduously work to destroy the APC and ensure it is defeated.

One of Oshiohmole’s supporters told this magazine: “Remember Obaseki is a sitting governor with enormous war chest. Also remember that he, who is already down, fears no fall. He will certainly unleash venom on our party if he is shabilly treated. Edo is not Lagos and not everybody is as meek and clawless as Ambode who gave up without a fight”.

At the Heart of the Spat
Repeated denials from the Oshiohmole camp notwithstanding, very reliable sources close to the two protagonists, confirm that at the heart of the crisis is Obaseki’s refusal to dispense patronage to party loyalists and thugs loyal to Oshiohmole who helped to rig him (Obaseki) into power in 2016.

Tony Adun, also known as Tony Kabaka, an APC stakeholder in Edo, who claimed he was among those who made Obaseki’s victory possible, but now part of the forces against the governor, gave filip to the above in an interview with Punch newspaper recently: “The fact is that, when people support you, you get them involved in boards, committees and give them contracts”

The former governor is also said to be offended by Obaseki’s effrontery in installing Frank Okiye as Speaker of the State House of Assembly.

Having installed his godsons as  governor(Obaseki.) and deputy governor (Philip Shaibu), the APC National Chairman reportedly  thought it wise to complete the take- over by installing the Speaker. He, however, got a rude shock when Obaseki decided to assert his independence by proclaiming the House in the wee hours of the morning only with 10 members loyal to him, and got Okiye installed as Speaker.

“Obaseki actually preempted his godfather and beat him to his own game. Oshiomole’s plan was to seize the House as soon as it was proclaimed with all the members-elect sitting and then impose his stooge as Speaker” , The Source was informed.

The magazine was told that Oshiohmole saw all these as an affront as he regards himself not only as Obaseki’s godfather but the godfather of Edo politics.

“He sees himself something akin to Bola Tinubu of Lagos who every politician in Edo must pay obeisance to and take instructions from”, a party insider told the magazine.

He further confided: “Oshiohmole never envisaged Obaseki’s stubbornness after he got him into power. Of course, both men knew that if the September 2016 guber election in the state had been free and fair- one man/woman one  vote- the PDP candidate, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu,  would have beaten Oshiohmole and his godson silly”

Peace Moves and the Option Before Obaseki, Oshiohmole
Some party chieftains told this magazine in Benin that the APC is headed for oblivion unless Oshiohmole and Obaseki sheath their swords, shift grounds and, reach a compromise before the election.

Failure to do this, they predicted, will lead to the castration, politically, of the two men following the eventual death of APC in the state.

“I can tell you that the PDP has been waxing strong here as a result of the crisis. Many of our members (APC) are simply waiting in the wings to turn coat. Others are secretly working for the PDP. Many of them are neither for Oshiohmole nor Obaseki.They are just tired of the crisis. If the guber election is held  today, PDP will carry the day with a wide margin, an APC stalwart told The Source.

It has been gathered, however, that some concerned, non partisan, elders in the state are working towards an amicable resolution of the crisis by getting both parties to agree to a compromise.

The peace formula may see  Okiye stepping  down for a Speaker to be produced by Oshiohmole in exchange for the adoption  of Obaseki as Edo APC’s sole candidate for next year’s election.

The governor is also to make some boards and political appointments to accommodate cronies of the APC National Chairman.