2023: Again, Polls Predict A Win For Obi

Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party, LP, has been predicted to win the 2023 presidential election by NOI Polls Limited.

The poll commissioned by Anap Foundation said the LP presidential hopeful is ahead of three other presidential candidates, namely Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, Bola Tinubu of APC and Musa Rabiu Kwakwanso of the ANPP.

The presidential race has been predicted to be a three-horse race for Obi, Tinubu and Atiku.

But the president of Anap Foundation, Atedo Peterside said on Channels Television on Wednesday that the poll conducted this month has shattered the earlier projection, as Obi is now leading the three other presidential candidates.

Peterside spoke two months after Fitch, a global rating agency predicted that Obi will lose the election.

Giving a breakdown of the polls result Peterside, a former Chairman of Stambic IBTC said Obi scored 23 percent, Tinubu scored 13, Atiku got 10 and Kwankwaso polled 2 percent in the fresh poll released in December.

He said, “Nobody has gained or lost more than 2, 3 percent. I don’t know whether that is good news or bad news but it is as if nothing has happened fundamentally, no significant shift.”

He explained that mobile phones were the instruments used to conduct the poll because of increased mobile phone penetration in the country, adding that a large percentage of people are undecided.

He said the interest level in the next general elections is driven by economic challenges plaguing the nation, poverty, and insecurity, amongst others, noting that the appetite of the youths in this election is high and carpeted candidates who have dodged presidential debates.

 An abridge version of the statement:

Peter Obi consolidates lead in a Fragmented Presidential Race

21 December 2022

Ahead of the forthcoming 2023 Presidential elections, a recent nationwide opinion poll commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited was concluded in early December 2022. The Poll revealed a significant lead by Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) both trailing him. Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) emerged as the lone outsider.

The results showed a significant lead for Mr. Peter Obi with 23% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13% proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who fell in second place. Alhaji Abubakar Atiku was third with 10% and Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 2% of voters proposing to vote for him.

Mr. Peter Obi’s 10%-point lead at this stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 13%, 10% and 2%.

Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 29% and 23% respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 38% of women are undecided versus 21% of male voters.

Poll Question: Suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?

Poll Question: Suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?

The percentage of registered voters and/or voters with their permanent voter’s card is as follows in each of the zones – 90% in the North East, 89% in the South West, and 88% in the South South. The lowest voter registration percentages were recorded in the North Central with 87%, North West with 86%, and the South East with 84%.

Fitch had two months ago predicted a win for Tinubu, the candidate of APC

“Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress.

“Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians,” the agency said.