2027: Peter Obi’s ADC Dilemma; APC’s Devious Gameplan

By Akinjide Aina, Abuja Bureau Chief

Less than 24 months to the 2027 presidential election, there are indications that the Labour party’s Presidential Candidate in the 2023 election and one of the key actors in the African Democratic Congress, ADC, coalition is in a dilemma as to his future with the party or next political move in the event that he fails to secure its Presidential nomination. Though yet to formally exit from the Labour Party, Obi joined other prominent opposition figures in July to unveil the ADC  as the adopted coalition platform that they expect would sack President Bola Tinubu and his party, the All Progressives Congress, APC from office come 2027. Apart from Obi, the roll call of opposition leaders at the event held in Abuja where former Senate President, Senator David Mark was named interim National Chairman of the ADC coalition,  included

former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, immediate past Kaduna state governor, Mallam Nasir el- Rufai, former Osun state governor and the immediate past Minister for Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola who was selected as the interim national secretary, former Cross River state governor, Senator Liyel Imoke, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation(SGF), Babachir Lawal, former Rivers state governor and immediate past Minister for Transport, Chibuike Amaechi, former National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun among others.

Presidential hopefuls in the coalition so far are Obi, Atiku and Amaechi. However, multiple sources told the magazine that the ruling APC dreads the emergence of Obi as the Coalition’s Presidential candidate or his pairing with Atiku as a running mate in the event that the former VP gets the ticket and is, therefore, not leaving any stone unturned to stop both possibilities from birthing on the shores of reality.

Aware that Obi’s exit from the the ADC coalition would severely  weaken it and render it an ineffective platform to oust President Tinubu, the ruling party, multiple source have confirmed, is working towards influencing and diluting the outcome of the  opposition coalition’s presidential primary.

Though Obi has a heavy war chest, he does not flaunt it in the political arena, he will rather deploy it to humanitarian gestures than to use it to tilt electoral or political exercises to his favour.

Many of his loyalists have privately shared their concerns with this magazine: That in Nigeria money plays a huge role in politics; the use of money to buy loyalty and support is so ingrained in the system that it has almost become the requisite to win party nomination or election proper.

They fear that failure of their principal to “play ball” within  the ADC coalition in terms of “reaching out” to the delegates prior, or during its presidential primary, will leave the field wide open for Atiku, Amechi and APC infiltrators to operate, thus fitting into the ruling party’s avowed determination to work against his getting the ADC ticket.

“Our fear is that the ADC Presidential Primary will be heavily monetized, influenced and tailored to ensuing that our principal comes a  distant third with Atiku and Amaechi coming first and second respectively”

The APC’s game plan, this magazine learnt, is to ensure that  Obi is neither the ADC Presidential candidate nor a VP candidate thus weakening the coalition and rendering it ineffective and incapable of challenging and ousting Tinubu and the APC from power.

The linchpins of the plot believe that once Obi fails to secure the Presidential or Vice Presidential ticket of the coalition, his supporters will get disillusioned, turn their backs on the party and force Obi to exit from it thus bringing the coalition to its knees.

Some APC insiders familiar with the plot, but sympathetic to the ADC and Obi, revealed the sequence thus:  “In the rapidly changing pre 2027 chessboard and political scenes that could alter calculations in the ADC, the  APC intends to plants mercenaries and spies in the coalition to influence a presidential primary that will return Atiku as winner with Amaechi and Obi coming second and third respectively.

“Naturally, Atiku will be pressured into picking the aspirant with the second highest votes, Amaechi, thus sounding the dead knell on Obi’s Presidential aspiration in the ADC and forclosing the likelihood of getting a VP slot.

“Alleging fraud and manipulation in the primary, Obi will likely abandon the coalition to seek alternative platform with a devastating consequences for the ADC coalition and to the advantage of APC and President Tinubu.”

Meanwhile, Obi has left everyone guessing about his political moves. Since he joined other opposition heavyweights to unveil the ADC coalition early last month, he has not uttered a word affirming his association with the party neither has he also distanced himself from it.

Strangely, however, the people’s Democratic Party, PDP which he left in 2022, just before the Party’s Presidential Primary for the 2023 Presidential Election, has been wooing him back.

Sources say the erstwhile ruling party is dangling its 2027 presidential ticket before Obi, Jonathan and Wike. A highly placed party chieftain has however, informed this magazine that the rump of PDP after the Atiku faction had pulled out and joined the ADC is now more or less an arm of the APC and controlled by Wike.

Said the party chieftain: “What is parading itself now as PDP is more or less a support group within the APC. In APC’s desperation, it is throwing all arsenal into the 2027 presidential election. Its plan is to, firstly, play the religious card by adopting a Muslim- Muslim ticket again to woo muslim voters in the North, foist a Presidential Candidate either from South south or South east on the rump of PDP to divide votes in the two regions, and then impose a Northern candidate on the NNPP, possibly Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso,to also divide ADC’s votes in the North while harvesting a bloc Southwest votes. The idea is to get 25% percent of votes from the South-east east, South-south and the North and then combine them with an overwhelming South west bloc vote”