2023: Tinubu, El Rufai Join Forces, As Atiku, Osinbajo Set For Big Battle |The Source

By Bayo Bernard

Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna state’s reported alliance with former governor of Lagos state and APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu over the 2023 presidential election has raised the stake in the contest for the highest office in the country to a feverish level. The controversial son of the Kaduna helmsman, Bashir El Rufai mentioned the idea on his twitter page on last Tuesday. ”Southwest & Northwest. A sacrosanct alliance for the betterment of Nigeria” Bashir wrote, displaying the picture of Tinubu and his father holding hands, to reinforce his point.

Whatever has brought the political foes together, those planning to take over the presidency in two years time, are surely, not leaving anything to chance, including forming alliances to achieve their aim,

The incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari departs power in two years time after the expiration of his terms as Nigeria’s leader, which gave politicians in the country, opportunity to express their interest in the top job. Not a few politicians from the ruling All Progressive Congress, APC and Peoples’ Democratic Party, PDP have openly expressed their interest in the top job in the last few months, while others have engaged their cronies to do the campaign for them.

The list of the presidential hopefuls and their deputies is endless, but those that have shown interest, so far, include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and Rotimi Amaechi. Others are Governors Aminu Tambuwal, Yahaya Bello and Dave Umahi. Umahi/ Bello

The controversial Kogi helmsman is the latest politician to throw his hats in the ring. He’s getting attention for the wrong reasons including his comment that COVID 19 vaccine was meant to kill Nigerians, that however has not stopped his supporters from uging him to take a shot at the presidency. Bello initially denied interest in the presidency, but he suddenly made a u-turn after some political groups said they will ensure that he contested the most powerful office in the country. Some youths in the state, under the aegis of GYB2PYB, last week, marched on Kogi state Liaison Office in Abuja, where they presented letter of request to Governor Bello asking him to contest. The group’s National Coordinator Oladele John Nihi, gave the governor 14 ultimatum to declare his interest.

In spite of this, the Kogi helmsman is seen as an unserious candidate on the back of agitation that power must return to the south.  He could be positioning himself as a running mate to a southern candidate, watchers of events say. In that case, some political activists say he might have decided to be a running mate to Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi state, who last year left the PDP for the ruling APC to achieve his presidential election.

Atiku/ Obi
Since political and traditional leaders from the south east started agitating for power shift to the zone, the noise about former Governor Obi, running with the former vice president has somehow died down. While the former Governor of Anambra state is said to have agreed to be Atiku’s running mate, sources close to him told the magazine that he’s also very sensitive to the clamour by the Igbo nation that no aspirants from the zone should accept to play second fiddle in the next political dispensation.  Atiku on his part has not left anyone in doubt that he will contest again after losing to Buhari in 2015. To underscore this point, the former vice president was said to have sold his shares in Intels, an oil servicing firm in Rivers state recently in preparation for that election. Atiku, some say is among the few aspirants with a war chest to contest the presidential election. Whatever happens concerning the zoning debacle, close watchers of event say Obi will contest the presidency, whether as running mate to Atiku or face it alone as a presidential aspirant.

Tinubu/ El Rufai
Few months ago no consideration was given to Asiwaju/ El rufai joint ticket, particular after reports that the Kaduna governor is one of APC stalwarts projecting the candidacy of Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti state who’s also the Chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum, NGF. El Rufai first spoke on the Fayemi’s candidature, last year, during a colloquium orgnised by some Northern leaders at Arewa House in Kaduna, where he said Nigerians will soon know what the north is trying to do with Governor Fayemi. The statement, according to sources did not go down well with the Tinubu’s camp who believed that the Kaduna governor was trying to polarize the south west, and possibly frustrate power shift to the zone in 2023. What has changed between Tinubu and El Rufai, however, cannot be ascertained yet, but many analysts insist that re-alignment of force is on-going from both sides in APC to work together for the common good of the party.

Checks by the magazine indicate that the APC National Leader is still by far one of the candidates most prepared for the 2023 presidential election, despite outrage by some groups across the country, particularly, the south west where he hails from, against his ambition. According to this school of thought, Tinubu is the only candidate that can galvanise support across the country apart from Atiku, in the presidential election. With the perceived consultations between him and El Rufai, recent endorsement by some political and traditional leaders from the south west, including the Ooni of Ife, Oluwo of Iwo, and others the former Lagos governor may have started turning his presidential campaign around, according to analysts.  But the major problem facing this joint ticket is the Muslim/ Muslim factor which is not likely to fly with many APC leaders because of the religious diverse nature of the country. “A southern presidential candidate who will then pick a Muslim from the core north will be more acceptable to the party, than a southern Muslim who will likely want to pick a Christian running mate from the middle belt. This will not be acceptable to the northern Muslims population who will not like to be shut out of power by virtue of that arrangement.  That’s the major problem the Tinubu camp is facing,” an APC stalwart told the magazine. But this is not enough to deter the former governor who sources in APC say has an unwritten agreement with President Buhari to succeed him.

Tambuwal/ Wike
Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto state is staging a comeback after he lost the PDP ticket to Atiku in 2019. Just like four years ago, he’s still being backed by Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers state who last week donated a whopping N500 million to the Sokoto state government to rebuilt the market recently gutted by fire. The donation caused an outrage in Rivers state, it’s however a sign that the lawyer turned politician has decided to stick with his political ally through thick and thin.

Wike, many say is trying to warm himself to northerners as part of the bargain to clinch the ticket as Tambuwal running mate for 2023 election.  Even though, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives has been somehow silent on his ambition, there’s no doubt that he’s one of the Trump cards of the PDP for the presidential election.   A source told the magazine that Tambuwal has decided to be on the low key for now until the PDP makes a definite pronouncement on the issue of power shift. With Wike and some northern leaders, including the Sultan of Sokoto on his side, Tambuwal is one of the presidential candidates to watch out for.

Osinbajo/ Zulum
Former governor of Jigaawa state, Sule Lamido made a statement last week when he said President Muhammdu Buhari will not support Asiwaju Tinubu in his quest to take over from him when his term ends in two years time, signposting that the former governor will not have the power of incumbency supporting his ambition, despite a gentleman agreement said to have been entered to with Buhari and some northern leaders to get his support for the incumbent in 2015. “Walahi, walahi Buhari will no support Tinubu,” Lamido said. What this means is that the power of incumbency is likely to be in favour of Osinbajo, who is believed to have the backing of some APC leaders from the North, because of his undaunted loyalty to the president.

Being a southern Christian could work for the SAN whose candidature, alongside Governor Babagana Zulum of Borno state, many in the party believe can resolve the problem of Muslim/ Muslim ticket conundrum which the APC is trying to avoid ahead the election. Since Buhari’s support for Tinubu has already being ruled out, Osinbajo is likely to be used to strike a deal with the Tinubu camp who will have no other option than to support the vice president, once they see the body language of the president towards this end. The only problem confronting Osinbajo now is Tinubu who would not easily let go of his ambition.

Even though it’s too early to predict who among these politicians will emerge at the end of the day, watchers of events in the country insist that Atiku and Tinubu are likely to emerge the candidates of their various parties.